The lockout feels like it happened an eternity ago and we’re now merely days away from the 2022 MLB season. We still have a massive amount of work to do and I’m left once again wondering if beginning to prep at Thanksgiving was early enough. Welcome to the very first edition of my MLB Notebook here at The Athletic. I couldn’t be more excited about the opportunity, and you can bet your bottom dollar we’ll be making the most of it together with a mix of betting strategy and application. With the fantasy baseball season about to kick-off, I’ve been burning the candle on both ends anticipating the pivot into betting baseball daily. There is some overlap in analysis, particularly on the pitching side, but betting games is a different animal altogether. While the world’s been asleep, I’ve been reviewing my written plan and backtesting the MLB Moving Averages algorithm getting ready for the upcoming season. I’ve touted double-digit percentage returns everywhere I’ve posted picks, but past performance does not guarantee future success, so I’m not stopping now.
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While correctly picking the winner on any given night is great, long-term winners are defined by their process. Last year’s bets mean nothing if you haven’t drawn from that experience toward progression. First, your play must be dictated by your expectations. If you’re betting recreationally, the only thing you need to do is not lose your shirt. Here’s a good rule of thumb: if you find yourself pacing or frantic over either a win or a loss, then you wagered too much. Continue to reduce that risk until you no longer care about the outcome. This method will preserve emotional capital as well as financial capital throughout an arduous season with inherent downturns.
On the other hand, if you’re like me and looking to create a source of income, then you must handle every minute aspect of your betting account with the utmost discipline. We’ll be covering as many actionable betting tips in this series as possible, and this one is near the top of my list. You can’t make money if you aren’t in the arena, so self-preservation is paramount. The second action you can take that will immediately change your perspective is the separation of capital. Bettors often mix personal and business funds which makes tracking progress near impossible. I treat my betting work as a private entrepreneurial venture. Think of it this way; if you opened a small business tomorrow selling widgets and had a strong opening weekend, that doesn’t mean you should go into the cash register to pay for a fancy steak dinner. As much as I love to joke and have fun (and I truly hope you all have a great time following as well; enjoying one’s work is a key to sustainability), I am very serious about that business and its performance. Managing percentage points adds up and will sometimes be the difference between black and red ink at the end of the year.
Sticking with the theme of sharp and responsible strategies leading to profitability, I want to share a crucial part of my ever-evolving process with you. Now that our risk management plan is carefully planned and written, the next step is execution. I remember making this change very early on in my career, and it showed results immediately. The best way to maximize execution is by eliminating as many variables as possible, and the best way to do that is to avoid the aspect of the game with the most variance. One of, if not the, hardest things about handicapping baseball games is the inconsistency in bullpens, both in terms of usage patterns and results. Betting lines are mostly centered around starting pitchers, but the majority only pitch six innings (or two-thirds of the game). Meanwhile, the game is often decided in the final three innings and those outcomes mostly turn into a coinflip — whether or not you want to admit it. The answer here was simple — eliminate bullpens from the calculus.
With the furthered legalization and advancement of online sportsbooks nationwide, access has never been more ubiquitous and we must use this to our advantage. What was once considered somewhat niche, every major provider now posts — First Five Inning bets (“F5” for short). The idea is simple; we’re betting on a five-inning version of the game. No bullpens, no extra innings, and no hours of emotional ups and downs. You’ll see F5 bets posted in a very similar fashion as full games, with both moneyline and run line bets. Let’s go over the possible results, how they pay, and why this can be so effective for those unfamiliar.
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First Five Moneyline Bet, Favorite Or Underdog (F5ML):
- If your team is ahead, you cash the bet
- If your team is behind, you lose the best
- If the game is tied, it’s graded a push, and the money wagered is refunded
That bottom outcome is the one I want to point your attention to here, especially if you are the type of bettor who prefers favorites. I know if I’m betting a favorite in MLB, I want to be winning after five innings or I want out of the wager anyway. I mentioned those closely contested games decided in the bullpen — they’re wildly unpredictable, precisely what we’re trying to avoid.
First Five Run Line Bet, Favorite (F5RL -0.5):
- If your team is ahead, you cash the bet
- If your team is behind, you lose the best
- If the game is tied, you lose the bet because your team failed to cover the half run spread
First Five Run Line Bet, Underdog (F5RL +0.5):
- If your team is ahead, you cash the bet
- If your team is behind, you lose the best
- If the game is tied, you cash the bet because the favorite failed to cover the half run spread
Once again, the bottom outcome is the one we need to circle and repeat to ourselves over and over (and over) until it sticks. When I realized we can cash a bet without being ahead, or even scoring a run in that game, my outlook on betting MLB changed immediately.
Now, there is some oversimplification here; sports betting is a very complex business and I don’t intend to improperly frame this bet type. There are no sure things and it’s not as if you can just bet an F5RL (-0.5) blindly without research. That being said, the very same gaming expansion that’s granting us this level of access has also attracted lots of novices into the space. New bettors generally bet favorites and the over, which will tend to even further boost this strategy in terms of pricing. When deciding when to deploy this approach, look for me to identify listed underdogs at good prices that I believe have the pitching edge in terms of starters.
Once we cash our bet in a 1-1 tie through five, make sure to cheer for our team to lose the game, so they will be listed as an underdog again the next day. I say this tongue in cheek but we absolutely see it materialize all the time throughout the season. For example, a team with good pitching that loses a lot of games is Miami. Someone like Pablo Lopez will be a perennial underdog to inferior starters on better teams because of public perception. The game itself will be close through five innings, we’ll cash our ticket, then the Marlins bullpen will promptly enter the game and blow it. This will then open the door for Trevor Rogers to be an underdog again the next day. Rinse and repeat. The public will continue to think the Marlins stink (which they may) but we don’t care because they’re still paying the bills.
I hope you enjoyed the first of many betting lessons in my MLB Notebook. If there’s anything you have questions on, disagree with, or even would like me to expand on, please leave a comment below or follow my Twitter handle @MLBMovingAvg. Don’t forget to check out the Corked Stats audio podcast, and also the Corked Stats video series on YouTube at the Mayo Media Network.
(Top photo: Michael Reaves/Getty Images)
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